On Election Eve, Here is How The National Polls Stack Up

If you haven’t checked out the FiveThirtyEight project yet, you need to. It’s the brainchild of election predictor Nate Silver.

Silver has correctly predicted every election since 2008, with the exception of 2016. However, his final prediction in 2016 gave Donald Trump a 28% chance to win, which was lightyears ahead of any other prediction, which were all around 5%.

As of 12:00pm on Monday, November 4th, FiveThirtyEight shows that the average of all national polls gives Vice President Kamala Harris a 1.1% lead over former President Donald Trump.

This is well within the usually margin of error for presidential polls, which sits around 3%.

While this might not bode well for Trump and his supporters, they should not get too down. The importance of swing states in the Electoral College process cannot be overstated. Assuming the polls are completely accurate, Trump is still the favorite thanks to the electoral college.

Let’s take a look at the polling numbers for some of the swing states in play this election cycle:

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, Trump leads Harris by just 0.1%, which is basically a statistical tie. Pennsylvania and its 19 Electoral College votes are a toss up on the eve of the election.

Both candidates are spending the final day before the election campaigning in Pennsylvania. Harris has five separate campaign stops in the Keystone State today, while Trump has three.

It’s safe to say that Pennsylvania will play an integral role in the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, Trump holds a 1% lead over Harris. Larger than PA, but still too close to call.

Donald Trump won North Carolina and its 16 Electoral College votes in both 2016 and 2020.

Will history repeat itself a third time in the Tar Heel State?

Georgia

In the Peach State, it’s much the same story as the other swing states. Trump is reported to have a 1.1% lead, but election day voting will certainly determine who gets the state’s 16 Electoral College votes.

We can’t forget the disaster that was the 2020 election in Georgia, where there were multiple claims of voter fraud across the state. Let’s hope there’s not a repeat of that debacle this year.

Arizona

So far, the swing state polls have been basically even. Next comes Arizona, which had its own election integrity issues to deal with in 2020.

Joe Biden managed to take the states 11 Electoral College votes in 2020 by winning 49% of the popular vote. It was the first time since 1996 that the state has gone to a Democrat.

Right now, Trump has a nearly 2.5% lead in the Grand Canyon State.

Ohio

Trump won Ohio by sizable margins in both 2016 and 2020 to capture Ohio’s 17 important Electoral College votes.

On election eve, Trump has a healthy almost 9 point lead in the Buckeye State.

Locking up Ohio will go a long way to securing the 270 Electoral College votes needed to secure an election victory.

My prediction

I believe that the popular vote will be very close. Kamala Harris might even win the popular vote, as her Democrat predecessors Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton did in 2020 and 2016, respectively.

I also believe that the outcome of the Presidential election will come down to four or five key swing states.

The same swing states that were so important in 2020 will also be in play this year.

This time, however, I think that Donald Trump will secure enough swing states, led by Ohio and Arizona, to carry 270 Electoral College votes and become the 47th President of the United States.