Germany’s Populist AfD Headed for September Election Breakthrough, Polls Suggest

A shocking knife attack by a Syrian immigrant in Germany has sparked increased support for the populist right party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD).

At a Glance

• A Syrian immigrant committed three fatal stabbings, boosting the AfD’s support.
• The attacker, a 26-year-old Syrian asylum-seeker, confessed to the crime.
• The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack, though this remains unverified.
• The incident has intensified the immigration debate ahead of regional elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg.
• The AfD is expected to be the strongest party in these upcoming elections.

Rising Political Support Amidst Tragedy

In the wake of a tragic knife attack in Solingen, which resulted in the deaths of three individuals and injuries to eight more, Germany is seeing the polls move ahead of a major election. The attacker, a 26-year-old Syrian asylum-seeker whose request for asylum had previously been denied, admitted responsibility for the attack. Following the attack, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), known for its strong anti-immigration stance, has seen a surge in support.

With regional elections slated for September in the states of Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg, the incident has intensified debates over the country’s immigration policies. The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attack, citing the motive as targeting Christians. However, this claim has not been independently verified.

Impact on Upcoming Elections

The upcoming elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg are now being closely watched by analysts. The states, with a combined population of 8.5 million, will vote on September 1 and 22. Polls indicate that the AfD is leading, particularly in Thuringia, where it is expected to garner about 30% of the vote. This increase in support is largely attributed to public concerns about security and immigration control in the wake of the recent attack.

The potential electoral success of the AfD is causing alarm among the country’s established parties and institutions. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution has classified Thuringia’s AfD chapter as an “extremist” group. Similarly, Brandenburg’s AfD chapter is listed as a “suspected” extremist group – a claim disputed by its members and a substantial section of the German public. 

Forming coalitions to exclude the AfD may prove difficult – a tactic used frequently in France to block the election of Marine LePen of the National Rally in several presidential elections.

Germany’s political landscape remains complex, with significant regional differences. Thuringia is currently governed by the socialist Left Party, while Saxony is governed by the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Possible coalitions excluding both the AfD and BSW may have to navigate tensions arising from varied political priorities and increasing voter concerns about crime and immigration.

The AfD’s platform emphasizes anti-immigration policies and critiques mainstream German media. Economic challenges, such as a shrinking workforce and slow digital adaptation, add another layer of complexity to the story. Violent crime associated with some foreign nationals has also increased, fueling AfD’s narrative. Thuringia’s elections are particularly poignant as it was where the Nazis achieved their first electoral breakthrough, adding historical weight to the current political climate.