How the 2030 Census Will Shift Congressional Seats

The Census Bureau said it has refined its data reporting using information “compiled using U.S. federal administrative data,” which includes legal permanent residents, visa holders, international students, refugees, and other types of immigrants.

Recently, the Census Bureau reported that international migration accounted for 86% of the population increase in the United States. At the same time, the “resident voting population” increased by 78.5% to reach 267 million, while the number of children reduced by 0.2% to 73.1 million from 73.3 million in 2023.

The illegal immigration sanctuary of Washington D.C. recorded the highest population growth of 2.2%, while the southern states of Texas and Florida had the highest raw numbers of immigrants. Florida also clocked in second with a 2.0% population increase.

While Western states like California experienced net negative domestic migrations as people continued to flee Democrat-run, crime-ridden states, immigrants moved in to stop the bleeding.

The congressional apportionment process distributes the 435 congressional seats among 50 states. It awards seats based on the total number of residents, regardless of their immigration status. As immigrants settle in various states, they increase the resident population, increasing the number of representatives the host sends to the U.S. Congress.

An increase in population in deep Blue states like California fueled by immigration could ultimately result in more Leftist representatives despite the state’s loss of its native population. For instance, it was reported that:

Based on the 2010 Census, the following states gained representatives because of the number of people illegally there:

• California: +6 representatives (11.3% of its representatives at the time)
• Florida: +1 representative (4.0%)
• New York: +1 representative (3.4%)
• Texas: +1 representative (3.1%)

However, internal migration from blue states to red states is still set to see red states gain seats in 2030. Of course, without mass immigration (legal and illegal), red states would’ve gained more, and blue states would’ve lost more.

Based on their native population loss, California should lose three congressional seats, while New York loses two, and Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island each lose one, according to the American Redistricting Project.

However, when considering international migration, California gained 232,570 more residents, while New York gained 207,161, reducing their net losses from internal migration.

In 2018, President Trump suggested that the census data should report on immigration status by including the question, “Are you a U.S. citizen?” However, Democrats opposed the proposal, seemingly to conceal that they were no longer proportionally representing Americans.